Sensitivity analysis of project level MOVES running emission rates for light and heavy duty vehicles

In order to understand how the uncertainties in the output can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainties in its inputs, it is critical to investigate the sensitivity of MOVES model. The MOVES model sensitivity for regional level has been well studied. However, the uncertainty analysis for project level running emissions has not been well understood. In this research, the MOVES model project level sensitivity tests on running emissions were conducted thru the analysis of vehicle specific power (VSP), scaled tractive power (STP), and MOVES emission rates versus speed curves. This study tested the speed, acceleration, and grade-three most critical variables for vehicle specific power for light duty vehicles and scaled tractive power for heavy duty vehicles. For the testing of STP, four regulatory classes of heavy duty vehicles including light heavy duty (LHD), medium heavy duty (MHD), heavy heavy duty (HHD) and bus were selected. MOVES project running emission rates were also tested for CO, PM2.5, NO_x, and VOC versus the operating speeds. A Latin Hypercube (LH) sampling based on method for estimation of the "Sobal" sensitivity indices shows that the speed is the most critical variable among the three inputs for both VSP and STP. Acceleration and grades show lower response to the main effects and sensitivity indices. MOVES emission rates versus speeds curves for light duty vehicles show that highest emission occurs at lower speed range. No significant differences on emission rates among the regulatory classes of heavy duty vehicles are identified.