Anticipating car ownership changes: influence of mode choices in autonomous vehicle era

This study investigates car ownership in the autonomous vehicle (AV) era, analyzing data from 674 U.S. participants. Using integrated choice and latent variable models (ICLV), it explores how perceptions of AV safety, the importance of car ownership, and the expected utility of transportation modes at the tour level affect ownership decisions. While past models have often relied on single-trip data to predict vehicle ownership, this study introduces a novel approach by integrating the expected utility from an individual's entire daily tour into the car ownership decision framework. This provides a more holistic understanding of how daily travel needs influence long-term vehicle choices. The research identifies a significant relationship between the perceived importance of car ownership, AV safety perception, and ownership choices. Additionally, the utility of different modes at the tour level, along with ownership costs, plays a crucial role in these decisions. Elasticity analysis reveals that while the market share for owning only an AV is resilient to changes in other modes attributes, overall car ownership decisions are highly sensitive to transit waiting time. For instance, a 40% reduction in transit wait times is predicted to increase the car-free market share by nearly 11%. The study reveals evolving patterns in AV ownership and offers critical insights into upcoming car ownership trends, providing policymakers with a behavioral framework to evaluate the effectiveness of transit and pricing interventions.